Conscious Finance

FIRE Calculator

Calculate your Financial Independence number — the portfolio size at which work becomes optional — and see exactly how many years it will take to get there based on your current savings and contributions.

Annual Expenses ($)

Your current or target annual spending

Current Savings / Investments ($)

Annual Savings ($)

Expected Return (%)

Current Age (optional)

The 4% Rule — Where Does It Come From?

The 4% rule originates from the Trinity Study, a 1998 analysis by three professors at Trinity University who examined historical stock and bond market data from 1926 to 1995. They found that a portfolio of 50–75% stocks could sustain annual withdrawals of 4% of the initial portfolio value, adjusted for inflation, across virtually all historical 30-year periods without being depleted.

For early retirees with potentially 40–60 year retirements, many FIRE practitioners use a more conservative 3–3.5% withdrawal rate. You can model this by multiplying your annual expenses by 29–33 instead of 25, or simply by running this calculator with a lower expected return rate.